For our favorite MLB player prop picks today, we’ll be going pitcher heavy with plenty of hurlers holding high value. We expect two terrible lineups to help a couple of outs totals, and a certain Boston pitcher to rain on Judge’s parade.
We’re entering the final week of September, but there’s still plenty of prop value to hunt down in MLB. The new Covers player prop page is also a great new tool for finding gems.
For my free picks today, I’m betting against two of the worst lineups in baseball and taking the Aaron Judge hoopla — and finding the best edge.
MLB props for September 23
Picks made on 9/23/2022 at 9:30 am ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
As the season winds down, there are some fadable lineups out there and the Chicago Cubs are one of them. They’re a perfect team to target with opposing pitchers’ strikeouts and total outs.
This is a lineup that just let Mitch Keller go six innings with four hits and seven strikeouts yesterday and projects as one of the heaviest strikeout lineups on the board today.
Enter Pittsburgh’s Bryse Wilson, whose 6.07 ERA is helping us get a great number on his total out market of 15.5 at +125 for the Over. The Pittsburgh right-hander has topped this Over in three straight and seven of his last 10 — which includes six .500 teams.
Wilson has a long leash for a high-ERA pitcher and gets to 90 pitches despite giving up runs. THE BAT projects him at Over 17 outs making this a great Over against a Chicago lineup that is easy to navigate top-to-bottom and has packed it in.
Bryce Wilson Prop: Over 15.5 outs (+125)
Covers MLB betting analysis
Hill goes full heel
Veteran pitcher Rich Hill, faces off vs. Aaron Judge and the Yankees at Yankee Stadium tonight, and the lefty is not going to give it up to Judge.
It’s amazing that more teams don’t walk Judge on his quest to beat Maris, but the Sox walked him three times last night and didn’t give him many pitches in the strike zone. Especially when considering Barry Bonds was walked 177 times when he hit 73 in 2001.
Of the 26 pitches Judge saw, only four of them were in the strike zone. Rich Hill will have no issues pitching around him to a chorus of boos from the Bronx.
THE BAT has Hill projected for 13 outs and with Judge at the top of the order, there is a chance he faces him three times. Just Judge’s walks could get us over the line here, but at +100 for two or more walks, we’re chasing storylines for edges on Friday night.
I would love to see Hill intentionally walk Judge in the bottom of the first and just go full heel one day after the Red Sox were officially eliminated from the postseason.
Rich Hill Prop: Over 1.5 walks (+105 at DraftKings)
Fading the A’s
Chris Bassitt will have the pleasure of facing the Oakland offense that, despite taking two of three from Seattle, is still one of the worst put-together lineups in baseball. I’d be impressed if any bettor could name four players in this order.
The A’s are dead last in hits per game, 29th in runs per game, 28th in extra-base hit percentage, and 23rd in hits per run. They also sit in the Bottom 10 in pitches seen per plate appearance.
Bassitt will be facing his former team in a ballpark he is familiar with and has recorded at least 18 outs in 23 of his 29 starts this season. THE BAT projects him for 104 pitches, and against this lineup that also traveled from the West Coast to the East Coast last night, should easily flirt with his Over 18.5 outs at plus money. This is much closer to a coin flip than the plus odds imply.
Chris Bassitt Prop: Over 18.5 outs (+125 at DraftKings)
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