The Airbus and Boeing market outlooks, Part 1

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By Vincent Valery

Introduction

September 12, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing published their updated 2022-2041 commercial aircraft outlook ahead of the July Farnborough Air Show. Unsurprisingly, both OEMs saw robust demand for the next two decades despite recent economic headwinds that lowered long-term fleet growth forecasts.

Credit: Leeham Company LLC, 2022

Airbus and Boeing see a market for delivering 38,600 and 38,110 single-aisle and twin-aisle passenger aircraft over the period. A 1.3% difference over 20 years is well below the margin of error of such long-term forecasts.

However, despite such minor overall differences in long-term delivery forecasts, both OEMs use different assumptions to come up with those numbers.

Also, the recent challenges with increasing production rates on single-aisle aircraft raise the question of whether there is enough capacity to meet the optimistic demand outlook.

The first part of this two-article series highlights the main assumption differences between the Airbus and Boeing market outlooks. The second will translate those assumptions into production rates and assess whether OEMs can meet that demand, notably over the next 10 years.

We will focus on the single-aisle (100 passengers and above) and twin-aisle passenger markets.

Summary
  • One OEM is more optimistic about fleet growth;
  • Another on replacement rates;
  • A (maybe not) surprising up-gauging assumption for one OEM;
  • Higher growth rates than meet the eye.

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