US CPI report coming up on Tuesday, 13 September 2022 – preview

The August inflation report from the US is due Tuesday:

  • This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
  • The times in the left-most column are GMT.
  • The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the consensus median expected.

Via Scotia, in summary:

  • Tuesday’s CPI figures … may further inform whether the FOMC hikes by 75bps or 50bps on September 21st but there is a high bar to whether they matter.
  • I say high bar because when given the opportunity to lean against market pricing for a 75bps move, Chair Powell took a pass in his appearance at a Cato Institute event. Several of his FOMC colleagues appeared to behave similarly.
  • It would probably take a big downside miss to core CPI to knock the Fed off course and even that is not assured.
  • It’s the annualized month-over-month core CPI reading that matters more than the year-over-year rate and so an estimated 6.3% m/m SAAR reading in core CPI would likely motivate the FOMC to believe that underlying inflation continues to run hot with broad pressures.
  • One input to the call is the Cleveland Fed’s CPI ‘nowcasts.’ … They have been a useful but not infallible source of input into the estimates. Still, the signal on core inflation points to a hot reading that should have markets looking through headline influences stemming from energy prices.

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